California Elections and Public Policy Poll June 2026

Published June 1, 2026
California Elections and Policy Poll (CEPP)
Release date June 1, 2026

The CSU Long Beach-USC-Cal Poly Pomona California Elections and Policy Poll (CEPP) is a representative survey of likely California voters prior to the June 2, 2026 primary. The poll is conducted by the CSU Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy in partnership with USC and Cal Poly Pomona. The survey was fielded from May 23 to May 26, 2026. These survey results are a snapshot of the California electorate’s attitudes on the days in which the poll was fielded and may not reflect changes to voter attitudes that occur between the poll’s dates and Election Day, especially as a number of respondents indicated they may change their mind. The survey asked about vote choices in the primary for Governor; other statewide races such as Lt. Governor, Attorney General; and more.

Results of toplines and crosstabs may sum to slightly more or less than 100 due to rounding. The poll is conducted by Dr. Matthew Mendez Garcia (CSU, Long Beach, Lead CEPP Pollster); Dr. Christian Grose (University of Southern California, Co-Lead CEPP Pollster); Dr. Raquel Centeno (Caltech); Dr. Jarred Cuellar (Cal Poly Pomona); Dr. Jose Javier Alcocer (Harvard); and Alex Wong (University of Southern California).
 
Survey methodology: The survey of 735 California voters is representative of the California likely voter electorate. The overall poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.6% points; with larger margins of error for subgroups and crosstabs. Voters were randomly sampled from the California voter file, ensuring equal probability of participation for all voters; and to provide representativeness of the state’s voters. Then, voters were screened for those who said they were “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote; or who stated they had already voted. Survey weights that are standard in the field were used to adjust the full sample, so the final results are representative of the likely California primary electorate. The survey weights included demographic variables such as party, race/ethnicity, income, and age. A raking procedure using the anesrake method in the statistical program R was conducted. The survey was offered in English or respondents had the option to take the survey in Spanish, Chinese/Mandarin, Korean, and Vietnamese. The CEPP poll in 2024 was the most accurate in the state of California with the lowest error in predicting the margin of victory between candidates across multiple statewide elections, and the CEPP poll has been fielded in every primary and general election since 2022.

Media Inquiries by email: Please contact Dr. Raquel Centeno at centeno@caltech.edu. Dr. Jarred Cuellar at jrcuellar@cpp.edu.

Media inquiries by phone: Please call or text Dr. Christian Grose at 818-277-6789 or cgrose@usc.edu.

California Elections and Policy Poll (CEPP), 2026 primary For release June 1, 2026. Conducted May 23-26, 2026 +/-3.6 MoE/N=735 likely voters

California Governor: Primary Election Toplines and Soft Support for Democratic Candidates
 
  1. The top four-polling candidates for Governor are Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Steve Hilton, Democrat Tom Steyer, and Republican Chad Bianco. When undecided voters are pushed to choose a candidate, Becerra receives 29% of the vote, Hilton is at 23%, Steyer is at 18%, and Bianco is at 11%. With a margin of error of +/- 3.6, Hilton and Steyer are close enough that either Hilton or Steyer could land in the top two alongside Becerra but with Hilton having a marginally higher chance. Further back are Katie Porter at 8%, Matt Mahan at 4%, Antonio Villaraigosa at 3%, and all other candidates at <1%, when undecideds are pushed.
  2. Republican voters may have made up their minds, but some Democrats are still deciding. When undecided voters are pushed to choose, Hilton did not gain and Bianco only marginally gained, suggesting Republican voters have consolidated around their candidates already. When undecideds were pushed, both Becerra and Steyer gained points in the overall toplines.
  3. Becerra’s first-place position is strengthened by the fact that he is also a leading second choice among some voters currently supporting other Democratic candidates. Unlike most other recent polls in the California Governor’s race, we also asked voters to choose their second choice candidate and asked about enthusiasm levels among voters in support of their first-choice candidate. Becerra is a second choice for voters who currently support other Democrats. Among Porter voters, 17% name Becerra as their second choice. Among Mahan voters, 18% say Becerra is their second choice (though the largest second choice of Mahan voters is Republican Steve Hilton). This means Becerra could benefit if support for Mahan, Porter, or even Steyer weakens, causing voters to strategically shift away from their first choice though he is not always the top beneficiary of those shifts.
  4. Tom Steyer may have a path to gaining from consolidation among Democratic voters in the waning days prior to Election Day because he is the leading second choice of a plurality of Porter voters, but only if the existing vote for Porter collapses. Among Porter voters, 33% name Steyer as their second choice, ahead of Becerra at 17%. If Porter voters decide to strategically move to their second choice, both Steyer and to a lesser extent Becerra would surge higher. This matters because Steyer is in third place in the topline but close enough to Hilton that he could move into second if he gained from any decline in soft Porter support or even some soft Becerra support. Steyer’s position may be marginally better than his first-choice number alone suggests, but only if supporters of lower-tier Democrats choose to strategically abandon their first-choice picks in the waning days of the election.
  5. If Democratic voters stick to their first choices and do not strategically dump their top choices for a better-polling Democrat, then Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton are likely to advance in the top-two general election. Hilton has consolidated more Republican voter support following Trump’s endorsement than Bianco, though Bianco retains a core group of voters. Becerra has consolidated Democratic support following the implosion of Eric Swalwell’s campaign, going from the low single digits in other polls less than 2 months ago to leading the field. Steyer has also been the primary beneficiary of Democratic consolidation other than Becerra.
 
California Elections and Policy Poll (CEPP), 2026 primary For release June 1, 2026. Conducted May 23-26, 2026 +/-3.6 MoE/N=735 likely voters
 
  1. Steyer’s support is softer than Becerra’s, Hilton’s, and Bianco’s. Among Steyer voters, fewer than 1% say they are very likely to change their mind, but 34% say they are somewhat likely to change their mind. Another 25% say they are somewhat unlikely to change, and 39% say they are very unlikely to change. This means Steyer has a substantial bloc of voters who support him but remain persuadable. If Steyer holds these voters and gains from soft Porter voters, he could compete more strongly with Hilton for second place. But if Steyer’s softer voters move, Becerra and Porter are positioned to benefit: 34% of Steyer voters name Becerra as their second choice and 29% name Porter as their second choice.
  2. Porter’s voters are among the most movable in the race, and that matters because Porter is a key potential source of strategic votes for Steyer and Becerra. Among Porter voters, 6% say they are very likely to change their mind and 34% say they are somewhat likely to change their mind. That means 40% of Porter voters say they are at least somewhat likely to move to another candidate.
  3. Becerra’s voters are more stable than Steyer’s or Porter’s voters, but some of them are not completely locked in. Among Becerra voters, 3% say they are very likely to change their mind and 18% say they are somewhat likely to change their mind. A much larger 48% say they are very unlikely to change their mind.
  4. Republican enthusiasm and Democratic malaise in the choice for Governor: Voters choosing the Republican candidates are enthusiastic about their preferred candidates, but Democratic voters are not very excited about their choices. When voters are asked if they are excited about voting for their preferred candidate, Bianco’s supporters are the most excited of all candidates in the Governor’s contest: 52% are very excited to vote for him. Similarly, 48% of Hilton voters are very excited to vote for him. Only 19% of Becerra voters are very excited to vote for him, and only 11% of Steyer voters are very excited to vote for him. Twenty-eight percent of Porter voters are very excited to vote for her.
  5. Why did voters take their time to cast ballots in the June primary? Just a week before Election day, 58% of voters say they were waiting until closer to Election Day to cast their ballot. Among these voters, 30% say the main reason is that they need to learn more about the candidates for Governor. Another 26% say they want to support a candidate who can win. Thirteen percent say they like more than one candidate for Governor and cannot decide and about 5% say that they wanted to wait to see if a scandal would occur. These responses suggest Democratic voters are holding their ballots and thinking strategically about electability.

Governor Primary: Which Messages Broke Through?
 
  1. Xavier Becerra’s message of experience broke through to Democratic voters. His image is mixed among independent voters, and negative among Republican voters. In an open-ended survey question, we asked voters to name one word or phrase to describe several of the candidates. Among Democrats, the most common open-ended description of Becerra is “experienced/qualified” at 28%; and 9% of Democrats described him as “establishment” or a “career politician.” Among Independents, Becerra is also most commonly described as “experienced/qualified” at 17%, but 13% call him a “career politician” or “establishment” and 11% said he was “corrupt/untrustworthy.”

California Elections and Policy Poll (CEPP), 2026 primary For release June 1, 2026. Conducted May 23-26, 2026 +/-3.6 MoE/N=735 likely voters Republicans, Becerra is most often described as “corrupt/untrustworthy” at 16%, “extreme/radical” at 12%, and “incompetent/failed” at 11%. If Becerra advances out of the primary, his image of experience crafted toward Democratic voters in the face of the Eric Swalwell implosion will be a key reason.
 
  1. Tom Steyer’s message of ideological progressivism broke through to Democratic voters, but he could not shake the “billionaire” label among voters of all partisan stripes. If Steyer loses the election, it will be due in part to the fact he was not able to define himself beyond that image of wealth. When voters were asked to name one word or phrase that described Steyer, 36% of Democrats, 25% of Independents, and 16% of Republicans chose “billionaire” or “rich/wealthy.” The second- and third-most used descriptors of Steyer among Democratic voters are “progressive” and “strong on environment/climate,” respectively, suggesting his message broke through to some Democrats. Among Independents, 25% describe him as “billionaire/rich/wealthy,” followed by “corrupt/untrustworthy” at 9% and “has good intentions” at 5%.
  2. Republican Steve Hilton and Republican Chad Bianco have very polarized images, quite different among the state’s majority of Democratic voters and the state’s Republican minority. When asked to choose one word to describe Hilton, among both Democrats and Independents, they chose “MAGA/Trump” and variants of “British/foreign/not American” for Steve Hilton. Among Democrats, the most common descriptions of Bianco are “MAGA/Trump/Trumpist” at 12%, “Oath Keeper/Proud Boy/Nazi” at 10%, and “crazy/nutjob/unhinged” at 9%. Among Republicans, Bianco is described as “strong” at 20%, “law and order sheriff/tough on crime” at 17%, and “conservative” at 7%. Republicans have more positive views of Hilton, using words like hopeful, change, and optimistic.
  3. The temperament brouhaha harmed Democrat Katie Porter’s campaign. When voters were asked to describe Porter in one word or phrase, Democrats say she is smart and progressive, but Independents, Republicans, and some Democrats frequently described her as angry and rude. Among Democrats, 24% describe Porter as “smart/competent/wonky,” 15% as “progressive,” and 10% as “angry/abrasive/rude/mean.” Among Independents, however, her most common description is “angry/abrasive/rude/mean” at 25%, followed by “smart/competent/wonky” at 20% and “progressive” at 7%. Among Republicans, 17% describe her as “unhinged/crazy,” 12% as “angry/abrasive/rude/mean,” and 9% as “awful/terrible.”
  4. Democrat Matt Mahan is not well-defined statewide, even as the gubernatorial primary campaign nears its end. When asked to name one word or phrase to describe Mahan, Democrats, Independents, and Republicans often said “young, new, or inexperienced.” Among Democrats, the top descriptions of Mahan are “Silicon Valley/corporate/tech bro” at 16%, “promising/likeable/hopeful” at 12%, and “young/new/inexperienced” at 10%. Among Independents, he is described as “young/new/inexperienced” at 13%, “moderate/centrist/pragmatic” at 12%, and “smart/competent” at 11%. Among Republicans, the top descriptions are “young/new/inexperienced” at 12%, “boring/bland” at 10%, and “moderate/centrist/pragmatic” at 10%.
  5. Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa’s image at the close of the 2026 primary was a candidate that is “past his prime.” When asked in an open-ended question to use one word or phrase to describe Villaraigosa, Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters frequently said he was a “has-been” or “old” and stated he is “past his prime.” Democrats, though, also described him more positively as being “experienced” and more factually as “former mayor of L.A.” Independents described him as a “career
    politician,” and Republicans described him as “corrupt” and “untrustworthy.”

California Elections and Policy Poll (CEPP), 2026 primary For release June 1, 2026. Conducted May 23-26, 2026 +/-3.6 MoE/N=735 likely voters

California Governor: November General Election
 
  1. Head-to-head matchups for the general election for Governor were tested for several candidates. Democrat Becerra polls slightly better than Democrat Steyer in a head-to-head matchup with a Republican, though either Democrat leads by large margins in a hypothetical Democrat-versus-Republican general election matchup. For example, in a Steyer-Hilton matchup, Steyer leads Hilton 55% to 34%. In a Becerra-Hilton matchup, Becerra leads Hilton 58% to 35%.
  2. A same-party general election between Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer would be much more competitive than a Democrat-versus-Republican general election, though Becerra has the early edge with many undecided if the general were between these two Democrats. In a Democratversus-Democrat hypothetical general election matchup, Becerra leads Steyer 37% to 26%, with 18% undecided and 19% saying they would not vote (mostly Republicans opting to not cast a ballot). Testing an all Republican Hilton-Bianco matchup, Hilton receives 34%, Bianco receives 15%, 26% are undecided, and 25% say they would not vote. We also tested scenarios involving Katie Porter in the general election, with Becerra besting her 42% to 22% in a Democrat-versus-Democrat matchup.

Down-ballot statewide elections:
 
  1. Lieutenant Governor: The race for Lieutenant Governor is wide open, with Fiona Ma leading but several candidates clustered close behind her. The reticence for some Democratic voters to return their mail-in ballots may be due to their uncertainty around this and other down-ballot elections. Fiona Ma receives 15% of the vote, putting her in first place. Republican Gloria Romero is second at 11%, followed by Democrat Michael Tubbs at 8%, Democrat Josh Fryday at 7%. The second through fourth place candidates are all statistically tied, considering the margin of error. Even though the survey was fielded just before the election, a large 31% of voters remain undecided.
  2. State Treasurer: Does Kounalakis regret not running for Governor? Eleni Kounalakis leads the race for Treasurer, well outside of the margin of error, and is the strongest non-incumbent running for any downballot statewide office. The race for second place to advance to the general election in the Treasurer’s race is competitive. Kounalakis is polling at 30%, followed by Republican Jennifer Hawks at 15%, Republican David Serpa at 12%, and Democrat Anna Caballero at 9%. Other candidates are lower and 24% are undecided. Given the margin of error, Hawks and Serpa could be treated as effectively close to tied, and Caballero is not far behind that second-place Republican cluster. Kounalakis’s lead is large and well outside the margin of error, which puts Kounalakis in a clearly stronger position than any other candidate in the Treasurer race. Her solid outperformance over the other candidates for Treasurer makes one wonder how she may have performed after the Swalwell implosion had she opted to stay in the Governor’s race.
  3. Attorney General, Secretary of State, Controller primary contests: Democratic incumbents Rob Bonta for Attorney General, Shirley Weber for Secretary of State, and Malia Cohen for Controller enjoy large leads over their second-place Republican opponents and are cruising into first place going into the June 2 primary. Rob Bonta leads Michael Gates by 13 points in the Attorney General race. Shirley Weber leads Don Wagner in the Secretary of State race by 14 points. Malia Cohen leads Herb Morgan by 14 points in the Controller race. These leads are all well outside the margin of error. However, roughly one-fifth of voters are undecided in each contest.
  4. Insurance Commissioner: The race for Insurance Commissioner is one of the most unsettled statewide contests in the poll with a possibility of a Republican lockout and two Democrats on the November ballot; or a Democrat-versus-Republican contest in November. Democrat Jane Kim leads with 14%, Democrat Ben Allen is at 12%, and Republican Stacy Korsgaden receives 10%. These three are all statistically tied when one considers the margin of error and the high number of undecided voters. 
    Other candidates are polling close behind but lower. Thirty-four percent of voters are undecided, which is more than twice Kim’s first-place vote share. In this low-information contest for Insurance Commissioner with that many undecideds, the role of candidate endorsements, ballot designations, and late campaign communications will be influential.