China inked a deal with 10 Southeast Asian countries
Monday to create the world's largest free trade area, bolstering its
influence in a region long dominated by the United States.
The
leaders attending the Assn. of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Laos
also announced plans to hold the first-ever East Asian Summit next year in
Malaysia. The Asia-only gathering would include China, Japan and South
Korea.
The moves are likely to boost China's political and economic
interests in an area where its relations have been strained by territorial
disputes and lingering war animosities.
That could reduce U.S.
clout among Southeast Asian nations that are key military allies and large
markets for U.S. farm goods, machinery and Hollywood films.
"This
is a wake-up call," said Myron Brilliant, senior vice president of Asia
policy for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "China is becoming more
aggressive in its outreach to its neighbors, and we don't want to be left
behind."
The free trade pact would lead to the elimination of
tariffs by China and ASEAN on thousands of products by
2015.
China's "charm offensive" — which includes the development of
bilateral trade pacts, increased investment in energy and raw materials
producers, and expanded tourism and educational exchanges — has
strengthened its standing as a regional leader at a time when U.S.
policymakers have been distracted by the war in Iraq and terrorism,
analysts said.
"By any aggregate measure, the United States is
still the great power of Asia," said Kurt Campbell, senior vice president
at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington.
"But if you go behind the scene in boardrooms, military councils and
diplomatic settings, you find that China's might and influence has grown
almost exponentially in the last several years."
That change was
evident during this month's meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic
Cooperation forum in Santiago, Chile. Efforts by Asian business leaders
there to push the concept of an Asia-wide free trade zone took a back seat
to U.S. concerns over North Korea and Iran.
Nicholas Lardy, a China
expert at the Institute for International Economics, said the Bush
administration missed a valuable opportunity to use the APEC forum to
counter the move toward an Asian-only trade bloc.
"Are we going to
have a trade arrangement that draws a line down the middle of the Pacific
or are we going to have a trade arrangement that includes the U.S.?" he
said. "To the extent we don't use APEC to promote regional economic
integration, by default we're going to have trade liberalization happening
primarily within Asia."
The renewed interest in East Asian
regionalism has been triggered by China's dramatic economic growth, which
has led to a sharp increase in two-way trade with its neighbors. After the
1997 Asian financial crisis, sales of raw materials and components to
China helped get its neighbors back on track.
At the same time,
China has worked aggressively to increase its diplomatic profile in Asia,
offering itself as a middleman in the North Korea nuclear dispute and
seeking to defuse territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
With
the U.S. preoccupied elsewhere, officials in Beijing have become more
involved in setting the regional agenda, from the removal of trade
barriers to establishing currency policies.
Li Fan, director of the
World and China Institute, a non-government think tank based in Beijing,
said the trade pact allows China to boost regional political stability and
maintain good neighborly relations.
"North America and the European
Union have their economic areas," he said. "Asia should have
one."
ASEAN officials moved quickly Monday to quash concerns that
the group was reviving a controversial plan by former Malaysian leader
Mahathir Mohamad for an Asian-only economic group that would challenge
U.S. dominance.
At a news conference, ASEAN Secretary General Ong
Keng Yong told reporters the East Asian Summit was still at the
"brainstorming" stage.
Charles Morrison, president of the East-West
Center in Honolulu, described the summit's creation as a "natural
evolution" in Asia's development that didn't necessarily threaten U.S.
involvement in the region.
"This would be of concern to the United
States if it looked as if Asia was uniting against the United States, but
this one doesn't have that flavor," he said.
Under the trade pact,
the six largest members of ASEAN — Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei,
Thailand and the Philippines — agreed to cut tariffs on 4,000 categories
of goods to between zero and 5% by 2010. The four poorest countries —
Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar — have until 2015. Governments are
given leeway to move more slowly in lowering tariffs on their most
sensitive products, such as sugar, steel and automobiles.
The
implications for U.S. firms are not yet clear, business leaders
said.
If the pact leads to increased economic growth, that could
benefit U.S. farmers, high-technology companies and others anxious to
expand their sales to the region. U.S. multinationals with operations in
China would also gain if they could export products to Southeast Asia with
lower tariffs.
But if Chinese or Southeast Asian firms are given
preferential treatment, particularly in heavily protected sectors such as
agriculture or manufacturing, it could put U.S. competitors at a
disadvantage, experts said.
Times staff writer Don Lee in Shanghai contributed to this report, and
Reuters was used in compiling it.






