PSYCHOLOGY MASTER'S THESIS ABSTRACT

Patrick Doyle

MA-Research
August 2004

Exploring Overconfidence: Response Mode and Question Difficulty Using Four-Choice Stimuli

    The current research investigated overconfidence and the calibration of probability estimates involving multiple-choice general knowledge questions with 4 possible outcomes.  The majority of research on overconfidence has been conducted using formats in which respondents answer questions and provide confidence ratings about how certain they are that a chosen answer is correct.  Two different response formats were investigated, 1 based on traditional methods and the other based on distributing the probability that a given choice is correct over the four alternatives offered.  It was hypothesized that overconfidence would be significantly attenuated using the distribution of probability format since subjects would tend to focus on all of the answer choices versus traditional formats where subjects tend to focus only on the answer they believe is correct.  The actual results did not support the hypothesis and overconfidence was found to be greater using the distribution of probability format.

Psychology Department * CSULB * 1250 Bellflower Blvd. * Long Beach, CA  90840-0901 * 562-985-5001