Would-be college students may have to work a little harder in high school if they plan on attending Cal State Long Beach in the future.
Because of the large number of qualified students that want to attend CSULB for the next academic year, the university stopped accepting applications last week. The cut-off date was pushed back from last year's June 15th deadline.
This measure is only a microcosm of what is going on throughout California. A predicted influx of students, referred to by administrators as "Tidal Wave 2" or "The Echo Effect," is forcing public universities to take measures to curb enrollment.
"Tidal Wave 2" is anticipated to bring 500,000 new students to California public universities in the next decade. At least 100,000 of them will seek higher education at the Cal State System.
Despite the earlier application deadline, by January CSULB had already exceeded last year's total number of applicants, 27,431. Official numbers will not be available until next week.
Many in the administration say the next step, even if the school is opposed to such a measure, is to raise admission standards.
Though most officials agree that the entire CSU system is going to expand, there is a disagreement as to the reason. Those who refer to it as "Tidal Wave 2" or "The echo effect," say that the sons and daughters of the baby bombers are causing the influx.
Keith Polakoff, associate vice president for academic affairs at CSULB, attributes the inpouring of students to California's popularity, high in-migration trend, favorable climate and steady job-growth rate.
At CSULB, enrollment has steadily increased since 1993, according to full-time equivalency enrollment figures.
For funding purposes, the CSU uses these figures, called FTEs, which count students based on the number of units they take toward a 15-credit load.
The FTE count is up by about 2 percent, or 418 students, from last fall. This rate of increase is considerably higher than the level at which the CSU is funded by the state, according to CSU administrators.
Polakoff said projections for next year say CSULB will be over-enrolled by at least 600 FTEs.
The state allots a guaranteed level of funding for each new student, and the university has to be very careful not to go over it. According to Maxson, over-enrollment results in funds being spread out thinner, sacrificing quality education.
Both Polakoff and Tom Enders, vice president of admissions, partly attribute increased enrollment at CSULB to a surprising source - President Robert Maxson.
Polakoff refers to it as "the Bob Maxson Factor." Maxson is known for his excellent recruiting skills and a superb gift of public relations. He has attracted a high number of students, whom he calls the "best and the brightest," through his President's Scholars Program, which seeks out high school valedictorians.
Maxson, who has remained close to the enrollment-increase issue, attributes the campus' individual growth to its attractiveness. Referring to it as "the campus of choice," Maxson said he believes CSULB's reputation that has put it on the map.
The interest in the campus is going up, so enrollment is growing. As a result, there are too many students, Enders said. He said it is a "complicated thing."
In the future, Maxson said, the university will be closing even earlier.
There is some disagreement, however, about the cause of growth. Conflicts at the state level present the argument of how much longer enrollment will actually continue to increase. According to the legislative analyst's office in Sacramento, the growth predictions are overestimated.
"If the rate of 1996 Californian college-participation continues, we project that total enrollment in 2005 will be 2,142,000 or 98,000 (4.8 percent) above peak enrollments of 1991," a source at the legislative analyst's office said.
This represents annual growth of only 0.3 percent from 1991 to 2005. Such growth would actually be 2.4 percent lower than the previous enrollment growth CSU experienced between 1971 and 1991, according to legislators.
Polakoff admits that some reports of extreme growth may be skewed, but he said he is sure the legislative analyst's reports are wrong.
"All you need to do is look at the number of students graduating from high schools in Los Angeles and Orange counties," he said. "It is an easy projection to make."
Sixty percent of CSULB students come from Los Angeles County and 30 percent come from Orange County.
Setting back the application deadline will help deal with the surge of new students, but eventually this alone could prove to be insufficient. To combat the expected surge, universities may have to install more rigid admission standards by raising GPA or SAT score requirements.
Out of the 23 Cal State campuses, Cal Poly San Louis Obispo is the only school who has resorted to this measure. San Diego State has been granted permission to raise standards, but it is holding off for now. Instead, SDSU has also opted for an early application deadline, Nov. 31 for the fall semester.
Like a domino effect, all schools will eventually be affected, one after the other, Polakoff said.
"I think a lot of the large campuses in the system, particularly in Southern California are going to wind up going the way of San Luis Obispo, even if they don't want to," Polakoff said.
"Like any coin, there are two sides."
On the positive side, Polakoff said, CSULB and other campuses will have more students who are better equipped academically. On a negative note, if the school raises standards and admittance becomes restricted, qualified students are at risk of not being able to go to college.
"There is however, always the option of either holding classes six-days-a-week or having 12-month semesters," Polakoff said.
The application deadline for transfer students will remain the same for the fall 1998 semester. Transfer students pose far less of a problem for CSULB because they are divided by majors, according to administrators. Incoming freshman have to compete for the same general education courses.
CSULB currently has 27,810 students - the second-largest enrollment
of the 23-campus system. San Diego State has the highest number of students
with 30,593 enrolled.