Editor picks Oscars, puts ego on line

Some people rest their egos on their athletic ability, others their intellect, still others on their sexual prowess. Me? I rest mine on how I pick the Oscars.

The Academy Awards will be televised on March 24. And I will be somewhere in front of a television shouting my picks for best actor, best film, etc.

Unlike other people who say, after the announcement, "That was who I was going to pick!" I am going to pick the winners before they are announced.

I am so confident of my Oscar mental crystal ball, that not only am I going to say who the winners will be, I am publishing my picks Ñ right here in the Daily Forty-Niner.

And to put my money where my mouth is, I will donate $20 for every wrong pick (major categories only) to the Orangewood Children's Home located at 401 The City Drive in Orange.

The Orangewood Children's Home is a transitional place that offers shelter and protection for children and it is such a good cause thatÑaside from the wounding my ego will take if I goofÑI really will not mind making mistakes.

Best Picture: "The English Patient." This romantic, tear-jerker epic bridged WWI and WWII, featured an international cast and is the only picture that falls between rogue independent and safe major studio. "The English Patient" also has a great "take that" angle. Fox dumped it because it wanted Demi Moore to play the femme fatale part, which repelled the producers and director Anthony Minghella, who insisted on Kristin Scott Thomas. She is up for best actress.

Not including "Jerry Maguire," the rest of the movies: "Fargo," "The People vs. Larry Flynt," "Secrets & Lies" and "Shine," are too weird, controversial or art house-ey to have a chance.

"Fargo" is a close second choice because sometimes the Academy picks violent, strange movies (think "Silence of the Lambs")

Best Actor: Tom Cruise, for "Jerry Maguire." This guy has paid his dues, he makes acting look effortless, he is underrated, he has been doing the family thing for awhile, he is not embroiled in scandal, he is powerful, his appearance in a movie guarantees a hit, he did a great job playing a sports agent who finds his soul and the academy feels they owe him one now Ñ not 20 years from now for his "body of work."

Even if "Sling Blade's" Billy Bob Thornton is the trendy guy to love, he doesn't stand a chance. His movie has only grossed $3 million Ñ and that is with Madonna oohing and aahing over his brilliance.

Woody Harrelson, in "Flynt" as well as in his personal life, pisses off too many people.

Geoffrey Rush in "Shine" Ñ too artsy.

Ralph Fiennes in "Patient" is a tough call. If comparing his performance to Cruise's, Fiennes deserves to win. But he has not hit the "beloved" status of Cruise and he has hit and missed at the box office.

Best Actress: Frances McDormand for "Fargo." Remove her from this Coen Brothers film and you have removed the humanity. Her portrayal of the pregnant investigator lingers long after the movie ends.

Plus the Academy loves to choose at least one unconventional winner and for some reason it always seems to happen in the actress categories (Marisa Tomei, "My Cousin Vinny;" Geena Davis, "Accidental Tourist;" Holly Hunter "The Piano. . .")

Diane Keaton has already won an Oscar for "Annie Hall," and her current movie, "Marvin's Room" was D.O.A. at the box office.

Thomas is the big competition. It was easy to see how the passion she stirred in Fiennes brought about the ruin of her, her husband and Fiennes, her lover in the "Patient."

The character Emily Watson plays in "Breaking the Waves" is simply too controversial: religious taboos, infidelity, impotence, sexual kink. . .

"Secret and Lies'" Brenda Blethyn. Who?

Best Supporting Actor: Cuba Gooding Jr. for "Jerry Maguire." No question about it. This is the sure pick. His catch phrase, "Show Me the Money," is insanely popular. He practically stole the movie from Cruise. He is black Ñ the Academy gets very sensitive to criticism of its lilly-white nominees.

William H. Macy, great performance in "Fargo" but not strong enough to topple Gooding.

Armin Mueller-Stahl in "Shine" Ñ guys with names like that only win in foreign film categories.

In his first major role, Edward Norton in "Primal Fear" impressed with his schizophrenic portrayal of two people trapped in one head; one evil, one stuttering and weak. He also has the pleasure of being the shocking twist at the end. Still, not strong enough to beat Gooding.

James Woods in "Ghosts of Mississippi" will feel the brunt of the backlash against the movie. The film tanked and it angered the black community because once again, Hollywood tells the plight of blacks through the eyes of whites.

Supporting Actress: Lauren Bacall for "The Mirror has Two Faces." Come on, this is Bogie's wife. She is Hollywood royalty. She wins.

Joan Allen in "The Crucible" too boring.
Juliette Binoche in "The English Patient" too obscure.
Barbara Hershey in "The Crucible" for some reason, does not seem to be popular in Hollywood.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste in "Secrets and Lies" faces a double whammy: too artsy and there is that foreign-sounding name again.

Best Director: Minghella for "The English Patient." He took a film about a dying, burned man and made it unbearable to not watch. "Patient" also has that grand feel popular with the Oscars.

The other nominated directors have too many obstacles to face. Rebellious un-mainstream director Joel Coen for "Fargo" will also lose because McDormand, his wife will win. The academy will rationalize that at least the family gets one.

Milos Forman of "The People vs. Larry Flynt" ticked off religious groups and women's groups with his white-washed portrayal of Hustler Publisher Flynt.

Never heard of Mike Leigh of "Secrets and Lies."

Never heard of Scott Hicks of "Shine," except as Mel Gibson's roommate from their younger, struggling years.

There you have my Academy Award picks in writing.

Editors note:
The following was printed in the April 2nd issue of the Daily 49er.

Two of my goofs in the Oscar picks means the Orangewood Children's Home in Orange County gets $40. Tom Cruise and Lauren Bacall did not win as I predicted they would in the column I wrote before the ceremony.

Laura Lothian is the beautiful and talented editor-in-chief of the Daily Forty-Niner
TM