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Iraqi
gov. must be inclusive in victory
The
Iraqi national elections held Sunday look
to have been a successful step in bringing
Iraq towards democracy. With the votes in
and counting underway, the Western World
is united in declaring that a positive page
in Middle Eastern history is being written.
All hopes and efforts must now turn to ensuring
that the heir apparent majority does not
return to the tyrannical ways of Saddam
Hussein's minority rule.
As
reported on Jan. 31 in the New York Times,
elections officials in Iraq are estimating
that the turnout may exceed 60 percent.
This would seem to be cause for much rejoicing,
especially after the dire postulations of
violence and fear keeping people at home.
But any praise needs to be tempered by another
official estimate, which states that turnout
in regions with a majority population of
Sunnis will peak around 40 percent. The
Shiites and Kurds were voting en masse,
while the Sunnis, still under the dark cloud
of insurgent violence and electoral boycotts,
stayed home.
The
Shiites, brutalized for years by Saddam
Hussein's sectarian rule, have everything
to gain in the elections. As the majority
of the population, they now have strength
in numbers and a sharp memory of oppression
motivating them. In the north, the Kurds
have had the same local leadership since
receiving partial autonomy after the Persian
Gulf war. Local elections which provided
no real options for change may not have
excited them. But a decade of moderate independence,
especially after being used as target practice
by Hussein, is something they have little
interest in giving up. The Sunnis, however,
faced a real challenge Sunday.
It
has been widely reported that over the past
two years, the insurgent fighters generally
have been Sunni. The heaviest fighting was
seen in Sunni-dominated regions of Iraq.
Those same Sunni regions were widely anticipated
to be the most violence-ridden during the
election. Most importantly, the calls to
boycott the elections were coming from the
Sunni insurgents. Their extremist leadership
was seriously interested in delegitimizing
the elections with a low turnout. This plan,
however, looks to be falling flat.
With
a majority of the populace voting, those
who stayed at home, either by fear or devotion
to a cause, will have done nothing but marginalize
themselves. The nascent parliamentarian
government will be composed of those who
are able to realize that the forces of democracy
were in charge. Barring major allegations
of fraud, the new government will have legitimacy
both in Iraq and the world. Those who sat
out will be sidelined until the next elections.
The
future of Iraq hinges on what the new leaders
choose to do. If they decide that this is
nothing more than their chance to do unto
others what was done unto them, Iraq will
break into civil war. But should the victorious
Iraqi government take the opportunity to
be inclusive, the national and regional
future could be very different.
By
letting those who chose not to vote safely
sit out until the next election, an element
of trust could take root, and those Sunnis
who didn't vote may realize that the uncompromising
attitudes of the extremists are totally
bankrupt. This test will be played out over
the next several years. If it succeeds,
the next elections will herald the start
of a lasting democracy in Iraq.
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