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Oscar
picks
By
Brian Spiegel
Online Forty-Niner
Staff Writer
Hollywood's
biggest night is also movie critics' biggest
night. I might not be a full-fledged movie
critic, but hey, why should they have all
the fun? Here are the critics picks, and
my picks, on who will walk away happy on
Oscar night.
Best
Picture
Nominees: "The Aviator"; "Million
Dollar Baby"; "Sideways";
"Finding Neverland"; "Ray".
What the critics are saying: Most critics
are siding with "Million Dollar Baby,"
but some are breaking ranks and predicting
an "Aviator" sweep.
Who will win: One of the two frontrunners,
either "Baby" or "The Aviator,"
will probably sweep most, if not all, of
the awards they are nominated for. "The
Aviator" has the""epic"
quality which the Oscars usually die for
but "Baby" has the momentum. The
voters will probably go with "Million
Dollar Baby."
Best
Actor
Nominees: Jamie Foxx,
"Ray"; Leonardo DiCaprio, "The
Aviator"; Don Cheadle, "Hotel
Rwanda"; Johnny Depp, "Finding
Neverland"; Clint Eastwood, "Million
Dollar Baby."
What the critics are saying: Most magazine
editors are checking whether Foxx has one
or two x's.
Who will win: Foxx has it in the bag…unless
Paul Giamatti of "Sideways" pulls
off a monumental upset. What? He wasn't
nominated? That's it, where's my gun?
Best
Actress
Nominees:
Annette Bening, "Being Julia";
Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full
of Grace"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera
Drake"; Hilary Swank, "Million
Dollar Baby"; Kate Winslet, "Eternal
Sunshine of the Spotless Mind".
What the critics are saying: Imelda Staunton
is the dark horse, but Swank should win
this in a TKO.
Who will win: Swank is the definite frontrunner
here, but voters might take pity on Bening,
who lost five years ago to Swank. Still,
a "Million Dollar Baby" sweep
is probably in the works here.
Best
Director
Nominees: Clint Eastwood, "Million
Dollar Baby"; Taylor Hackford, "Ray";
Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake"; Alexander
Payne, "Sideways"; Martin Scorsese,
"The Aviator."
What the critics are saying: Even though
it once looked like Scorsese's year, the
award will probably fall into Eastwood's
hands.
Who will win: The question is will the Academy
reward Scorsese's flashiness or Eastwood's
subtleness? If the Academy feels sentimental,
it might go for Marty but realistically
Eastwood will probably win his second award
of the night.
Best
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Alan Alda, "The Aviator";
Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways";
Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"; Morgan
Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby";
Clive Owen, "Closer."
What the critics are saying: Freeman will
probably walk away with a well-deserved
Oscar…if Church doesn't snatch it
away from him.
Who will win: Here's the deal: If the voters
feel like "Sideways" deserves
a few bones here then Church will win. If
not, and "Baby" pulls away from
the pack, then Freeman will finally win
one. To quote Peter Travers from Rolling
Stone, "Who's going to begrudge Freeman?
You?"
Best
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator";
Laura Linney, "Kinsey"; Virginia
Madsen, "Sideways"; Sophie Okonedo,
"Hotel Rwanda"; Natalie Portman,
"Closer."
What the critics are saying: Cate Blanchett
has been the frontrunner for months now
so most critics are picking her. There has
been, though, a recent push for Madsen who
might pull off an upset here.
Who will win: Blanchett will probably win
this one, unless, as I wrote above, voters
feel like throwing "Sideways"
another bone.
Best
Original Screenplay
Nominees:
"The Aviator"; "Eternal Sunshine
of the Spotless Mind"; "Hotel
Rwanda"; "The Incredibles";
"Vera Drake."
What the critics are saying: "Eternal
Sunshine," the epitome of an original
screenplay, has gotten most, if not all,
critics' picks.
Who will win: "Eternal Sunshine"
was almost completely snubbed by Oscar voters.
If they don't throw it an ultra-deserved
bone here, then I will begin to question
the existence of God.
Best
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: "Before Sunset"; "Finding
Neverland"; "Million Dollar Baby";
"The Motorcycle Diaries"; "Sideways."
What the critics are saying: "Sideways"
has won almost every writing award under
the sun this season.
Who will win: "Sideways" should,
and probably will win this award. Great
movies like this always tend to win screenplay
awards. Though, like I said before, watch
out for a "Million Dollar Baby"
sweep.
Best
Song
Nominees:
"Accidentally in Love" —
"Shrek 2"; "Al Otro Lado
del Rio" — "The Motorcycle
Diaries"; "Believe" —
"The Polar Express"; "Learn
to Be Lonely" — "The Phantom
of the Opera"; "Look to Your Path
(Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" — "The
Chorus."
What the critics are saying: They are all
wondering what happened to Mick Jagger's
"Old Habits Die Hard," which won
the Golden Globe Award. Most critics are
split between "Learn To Be Lonely"
and "Believe."
Who will win: Quite a lame group here, if
I may say so. "Believe" is sappy
enough to win an award which usually goes
to sappy songs.
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