Modern
mega oil problems have no solutions
Sterling
Harris
I’ve
previously written about the dangers
as global rates of oil extraction start
to level off and inevitably decline.
I am not saying the world is out of petroleum.
There are, however, a number of major
problems that will arise as the world
runs short.
The world economy requires constant economic growth in order to remain healthy
and stave off collapse. Economic growth in turn requires an ever-increasing
amount of energy, 40 percent of which comes from oil.
In short, even a minor shortfall in oil supply threatens to send the world
economy into a major recession — or worse.
Our economy is dependent upon oil and its byproducts in one way or another.
Every detail of our modern lives that we take for granted requires one hydrocarbon
fuel or another.
The concept of “peak oil” has gained traction in the media due
to skyrocketing oil prices, which are near record highs. Every oil well follows
a production profile that resembles a bell curve.
There is a peak in production when about half of the oil has been extracted,
then rate of production declines exponentially. This process is inevitable
and it has occurred or will occur all oil fields on earth.
There are a number of nations that have gone through a production peak and
a subsequent decline. The United States, once the world’s largest producer
and exporter of oil, had its own oil peak in the early ‘70s, and production
has been in decline ever since.
How close is the world to an exponential decline in the amount of available
petroleum? Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker from Houston, has attempted
to answer that question with his new book “Twilight in the Desert,” which
evaluates the future prospects of the world’s most prolific oil province — Saudi
Arabia.
Simmons points out that a small amount of giant fields account for 90 percent
of Saudi Arabia’s oil output. These fields are on average more than 50
years old, and have experienced a number of technical problems throughout their
productive lives.
Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s own stated reserves of 260 billion barrels
is highly dubious. The number has increased substantially in the last 20 years
despite intense production and few new discoveries.
Any sizeable decline in Saudi oil output would send the world past peak oil,
as there are no new fields of any size that could offset such a loss.
Many economists have pointed out that oil prices are cyclical by their very
nature, and an increase in price would lead to a round of new discoveries.
Unfortunately, economists fail to recognize the fact that 1964 was the peak
year for oil discovery. Since then the rate of discovery has fallen to less
than one barrel of oil for every four we use.
There are no easy solutions to our dilemma, and peak oil is the biggest problem
we will face in our lifetimes. Major changes in our materialistic way of life
are inevitable, and the sooner we get used to that fact the better off we will
be.
Sterling Harris is a sophomore electrical engineering major. |
