Our
View: Looking into a crystal ball
Having
spent the past four months analyzing a mass
of public policy issues, it’s time
for us to put all our cards on the table.
So, while wishing graduates the best of
luck and continuing collegians a wonderful
summer break, we here present a few fearless
predictions to clip and save.
Supreme
Court Cases: In a case involving meetings
of an energy task force, the high court
will side with the Bush administration.
The court seems to view this as a case of
executive privilege, not shadowy deception,
so it will affirm the right of the president
to meet with private officials and keep
the identity of such officials secret.
The
Court will overturn the 9th Circuit Court
of Appeals verdict that made the phrase
“under God” in the Pledge of
Allegiance unconstitutional. The court itself
opens its hearings with “God save
this Court,” so it is unlikely to
find that a similar practice violates the
Establishment Clause.
The
court will rule against the Bush administration
in the case involving indefinite detentions
without charges of U.S. citizens. It will
see the open-ended imprisonment of Jose
Padilla and Yasser Hamdi as a blatantly
unconstitutional suspension of habeas corpus.
In
the toughest call of all, the Court must
decide whether habeas corpus extends to
foreign nationals detained by the United
States. At issue is whether federal courts
have jurisdiction over a non-U.S. territory
such as Guantanamo Bay. If they do not,
then the government can detain foreigners
indefinitely so long as the foreigners are
not held on U.S. soil. While the Court has
shown reluctance to extend such privileges,
we believe it will nonetheless rule against
the government and set a landmark precedent.
The
Olympics: The Athens Games are clouded in
uncertainty. A slow pace of construction
has exacerbated security questions that
naturally arise for such a high profile
event in our age of terrorism. Recent bombings
in Greece have raised additional concerns.
At least one more small-scale attack will
occur prior to the start of the Games, casting
a pall over the event. Large-scale terrorism
will not occur during the Games, but a Western
athlete will be kidnapped.
Iraq:
The transitional government that takes power
on June 30 will be more representative than
the current Governing Council, but will
still be seen as a largely corrupt puppet.
Concerns about the timetable for elections
will compound concerns over the future of
the government. A major strike by the insurgency
will take place, but overall violence will
diminish as Iraqi forces become more independent
and take more responsibility for control
of the country. The Olympics will prove
to be a unifying force in the country, if
only for a short while.
The
Triple Crown: Smarty Jones has looked stellar
in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.
The colt’s strength in the stretch
will allow him to take the Belmont and become
the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to
pull off the trifecta.
Presidential
Race: John Kerry will choose John Edwards
as his running mate on the Democratic presidential
ticket. The selection will provide a substantial,
if only temporary, boost to Kerry’s
poll numbers relative to President Bush.
The
State Budget: Not wanting to ostracize itself
even more amid Gov. Schwarzenegger’s
popularity, the state legislature will pass
a budget on time. It will seek to increase
taxes in some areas, but the Governator
will use his line-item veto to disrail the
effort. The state will be left looking forward
to another large budget gap in the next
fiscal year.
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