Our
View: Mission in Iraq must survive
The
recent revelations of prisoner abuses and
outright war crimes in Iraq have led all
observers to wonder how and when, if ever,
America can be viewed as a benevolent power
in the Middle East. Commentators and lawmakers
have speculated despondently that we can
only hope that by imposing a fitting punishment
on those responsible and by making a thousand
gestures of goodwill we will be forgiven
in the eyes of the region’s people.
It
is true that such measures are necessary
to disinfect the poisoned atmosphere created
by the images. And inarguably, the situation
and its resolution have major implications
for the future success of U.S. policy in
the area.
But
ultimately, America’s reputation is
a long-term issue that will be only marginally
affected by the atrocities committed by
a few Americans. For as bad as America must
now appear to the region’s people,
this anger will probably seem paltry if
compared with the fury that will proliferate
should America’s mission in Iraq fail,
leaving a savage and unsustainable state
behind.
A
comparison of the consequences of the Abu
Ghraib depravities with the consequences
of leaving behind a fractured Iraq bears
out this point. For example, it seems to
be a foregone conclusion that the atrocities
will inspire many more Iraqis to take up
arms against coalition forces. Obviously,
this translates to more coalition casualties
and a slower pace of reconstruction. It
does not, however, translate directly to
the failure of the mission.
Similarly,
the tortures, rapes and murders at Abu Ghraib
will probably cause Iraqis to be somewhat
less willing to cooperate with the coalition’s
security and reconstruction efforts. But
it will not result in a wholesale loss of
partners in the country. Jobs with the nascent
Iraqi police and military forces are abundantly
available, and a satisfactory number of
people will still be willing to fill them
in order to feed their families.
There
are less tangible effects as well. America
has lost the moral high ground on insurgents
such as those who desecrated the bodies
of four civilian contractors in Fallouja
last month. Any trend toward heightened
regional backing from such nearby states
as Iran, Syria and Jordan, both with respect
to Iraq and to the worldwide war on terror,
has likely been stifled.
But
with a few limited exceptions, the fallout
only affects the mission itself. The repercussions
of a failed mission in Iraq, however, would
be far reaching. Obviously, failure would
create a power vacuum that would be a prime
breeding ground for terrorists.
Democracy
would be almost impossible to achieve in
a climate of fear and destruction, so eventually
a prominent figure would manage to consolidate
enough popular and armed support to take
power. It is almost certain that such a
leader would be hostile to U.S. interests
— otherwise, this leader would not
have support in the first place. Also, this
leader would likely represent Shia aspirations.
Discontent with such representation would
follow, along with terrorism, civil war
and a literal division of the country into
Shia, Sunni and Kurdish sectors.
Iraq’s
economy would probably atrophy horrifically,
leading to archaic living conditions reminiscent,
and probably far worse, than those experienced
during 13 years of U.N. and U.S. sanctions.
Continued
support for the mission does not mean ignoring
the fact that success in Iraq faces many
hurdles. Troop levels are insufficient,
as is the equipment given to the forces
already in the theater. Screening of ex-Baathists
and even insurgents in the effort to recruit
independent Iraqi security force members
is proving quite difficult, and could backfire
tremendously if not done right. And the
occupation has become enormously expensive,
with another $25 billion appropriation request
now on the table.
But
all of these problems existed prior to the
disclosure of the prison crimes. The coalition
must not succumb to the specter of defeatism;
it must remain focused on its overarching
objective, that being the stability of Iraq.
While it is true that prison atrocities
have caused a great deal of harm to American
prestige, failing in Iraq would be the greatest
atrocity of all, one that might never be
forgiven.
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