World oil production series, part three: Energy imperialism with Iran in the crosshairs

If one were to listen hard enough, one could hear the familiar sound of the drums of war beating off in the distance. Team Bush has begun what appears to be another propaganda offensive leading up to the possible invasion of yet another energy-rich nation. It has recently been discovered that 15 of the 19 alleged Sept. 11 hijackers passed through Iran on their way to the United States. The latest target for the United States appears to be Iran. Much attention has also been focused on Iran's latent nuclear program and alleged uranium enrichment activities.

Why the sudden concern? The cynical response is that the administration is trying to divert attention away from Iraq before the upcoming election. A deeper understanding of the situation, however, yields a different picture. The so-called war on terror can be more properly understood as a war for control of the largest hydrocarbon energy reserves on the planet and their conduits. This administration knows that a peak in the rate of world oil extraction is imminent.

A long period of decline in petroleum production will trigger a monetary collapse in the industrial societies. It is believed that in the short term, a handful of oil-producing nations can make up the decline in world production. These countries all happen to be in the Middle East. The plan then, is to support or install pliant governments in each of these countries. The oil must flow; it is the spice, the manna and the lifeblood of industrial capitalism. This will give the United States complete control of the regions.

The U.S. must also ensure that oil will be traded in U.S. dollars only, creating an artificial demand for the only thing of value exported by our fiat currency. The debt level can only be sustained if there is a world-wide demand for U.S. currency hence the need to keep the dollar standard. Some states in the Middle East have questioned this policy (most notably Iraq under Hussein's rule), only to be put back in their place.

The global demand for natural gas is also rising making Iran —the second largest country with reserves of natural gas — a key strategic asset. With declining rates of domestic extraction, the United States will soon be starved for natural gas, but with the advent of Liquefied Natural Gas tankers, it can be transported worldwide.

Where will this lead us in the future? A national draft bill is under consideration in Congress. Consider Dick Cheney's comments when he said this war will not end during our lifetime. Also consider the fact that the Department of Defense quietly issued a call for people to serve on local draft boards. The U.S. can't possibly hope to sustain a major assault on Iran and the current occupational force in Iraq without an infusion of new soldiers.

Furthermore, Iran's national oil policy is most odious to multinational corporations and their Washington allies. It makes private investment in Iran less profitable and it has hindered the flow of oil there. The U.S. would like to loosen the restrictions on business in Iran ala Iraq (fifteen percent corporate flat tax, no-bid contracts, etc.) This would bring the oil to market faster, making increased economic growth possible. Increased oil production in Iran is risky for them in the long run as it accelerates the rate of depletion. This is of no concern to planners in Washington, who draft policy only considering the short-term gains. Consider this a warning, the next target in the endless war may be Iran, and the one fighting in it may be you.

This article is the third in a four-part series on oil by Sterling Harris, a history major at CSULB.