World oil production series, part one: The sun is setting on oil production worldwide

A cloud of uncertainty is on the horizon, and how we choose to act in the next few years will determine the fate of many generations to come. I’m referring to the looming global oil crisis, and its inevitable effects. Oil is a stupendous source of energy, it makes economic activity possible, and it allows us to live in incomparable luxury and leisure.

No longer are we slaves to the earth, praying for rain or hoping for sun. Our conquest of nature seems complete, but things are rarely as they seem. It would almost be impossible to exaggerate our dependence on petroleum. It powers the plows in our fields, it brings our food to us from an average distance of 1,200 miles, it takes us to work and back, its by-products are converted into pharmaceuticals and much more.

Unfortunately, the future of world oil extraction is dubious. There is only so much oil in the ground, and we have already found most of it. At this point, we are consuming four barrels of oil for every one that we find, and that disparity is widening. The world consumes about 81 million barrels of oil a day, and that consumption — fueled by giants like China and India — is growing by about three percent a year. The common misconception is that the problems will begin when we run out of oil.

Simply divide the remaining oil, roughly 1.2 trillion barrels, by our current rate of consumption, and 40 years are left until we use the last drop. This formula is flawed for two reasons. First, it fails to take into account the fact that the world demand for oil is growing. The second fallacy is that it assumes that it is possible to extract oil at the same rate until a given well is pumped dry. The truth is that under normal conditions, the production from a given well follows a bell-like curve. There is a peak production point on the curve, and from there the rate of extraction falls all the way to zero, incapable of reaching its former zenith. Entire regions follow the same pattern, and it is a near certainty that the world will as well.

The lower 48 of the United States saw a peak in oil production in 1970, and unsurprisingly, that was the end of the "golden age" of U.S. capitalism. Since then, we have become increasingly reliant upon oil imports.

Two key questions about our future emerge. The first, when world oil production will peak, may be answered by looking to America as an example. Oil discovery in the U.S. peaked in the 30’s and production peaked forty years later. World oil discovery peaked in 1964. We won’t know if we are peaking now for at least a couple of years, but it will become clearer with time. In short, world oil production will peak within the next five to ten years, if it hasn’t already.

Second, what does a decline in the availability of oil mean for us? Quite simply, further economic growth will not be possible, in fact, we will start to see the global economy shrink. Without an abundance of oil to manufacture pesticides and fertilizers, we will see food production plummet, leading to mass starvation in some places. Depression is inevitable, and getting out of it won’t be as simple as it was in the past. This isn’t a rosy picture, and unfortunately, it isn’t even the half of it, but there are some things we can do to cushion the fall. In subsequent columns I will examine the prospects for alternative sources of energy, and how we can cope with this crisis and its consequences.

This article is the first in a four-part series on oil by Sterling Harris, a history major at CSULB.