California
universities feel deficit
By
Brad Greenberg
Daily Bruin
LOS
ANGELES (U-Wire) -- Despite California Gov.-elect
Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign promises
to preserve educational funding, the University
of California system's budget may be "on
the chopping block," some political
analysts said.
Facing
an $8 billion deficit for the 2004-05 academic
year, many have said they believe Schwarzenegger's
pledged audit of the state budget will not
find enough free revenue to maintain educational
funding without raising taxes or making
cuts to other programs, such as health care
or prisons. And he has vowed to not raise
taxes.
"You
have to worry about the UC because the way
Arnold talks, he hasn't given himself a
lot of wiggle room," said Bruce Cain,
director of the Institute of Governmental
Studies at the University of California
at Berkeley.
Members
of Schwarzenegger's transition team did
not respond to phone calls Monday and Tuesday.
In
addition to the $8 billion budget gap, Schwarzenegger
will inherit a $10.7 billion bond deficit
that will be paid over the next five or
more years. If he chooses to repeal the
car tax, which tripled the annual car fee
-- a $158 expense for the average California
resident -- the state budget will be off
kilter an estimated additional $4 billion.
Fifty-three
percent of this year's state budget went
to education -- 12.2 percent for higher
education. Only 5 percent of the state's
$72 billion budget could be redistributed
without the legislature's approval, said
Department of Finance spokeswoman Anita
Gore.
Even
with the backing of the legislature, it
is unlikely Schwarzenegger will make cuts
to other public services, Cain said.
"You
can't take health care away from poor people,
especially poor children," he added.
Though
Schwarzenegger has vowed to champion education,
some faculty and political analysts worry
he is not as passionate about higher education
as he is about kindergarten through high
school. His most notable prior political
experience was leading a campaign for Proposition
49, which passed in November and grants
as much as $550 million annually for after-school
programs.
"The
fear is that he will interpret his promise
[to preserve funding] through not cutting
K-12," said University of California
at Los Angeles political science professor
Barbara Sinclair.
Unlike
K-12 education, which is legally guaranteed
a certain amount of funding based on per
capita income, the UC has no legal formula
that dictates its budget, making it more
vulnerable.
"My
guess is ... it will not be pretty for the
UC," said Matt Baum, UCLA assistant
professor of political science.
Last
month the state Department of Finance asked
all state agencies to devise plans for sustaining
a 20 percent budget cut, which would be
$600 million for the UC. UC budget Vice
President Larry Hershman said if the UC
faced such a cut -- and didn't cut university
programs -- student fees would need to increase
$4,000 annually to offset it.
The
UC raised student fees 10 percent in December
and another 30 percent over the summer.
UCLA undergraduates will pay $5,819 this
year.
"At
the rate we are going, UCLA and Berkeley
will look more like Stanford [University]
and [the University of Southern California],"
Cain said, referring to the skyrocketing
cost of a UC education.
Both
Stanford and USC's tuitions exceed $28,500
for 2003-04.
"It's
a bad thing for people who are not poor
enough to get financial aid and not rich
enough to pay top dollar," Cain said.
Borrowing money is one of the few options
Schwarzenegger has to preserve the education
budget without raising taxes. But with the
lowest credit rating of any state, many
Wall Street investors are wary about California.
In the short term, though, the state can
continue to borrow, said David Hitchcock,
a senior analyst for the investment analysis
firm Standard and Poor's.
All
of Schwarzenegger's actions, whether in
line with campaign promises or not, will
be under the eye of public scrutiny, as
many people are expecting the bodybuilder-turned-actor-turned-governor
to fail.
"He
is inheriting a very difficult budget situation,
and almost anything he does risks jeopardizing
his credibility," said UCLA political
science professor John Zaller. "Whether
the risks are greater for raising taxes
or cutting education or having the state
bond rating fall ... is something for him
to decide."
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