Governor-to-be
faces daunting task
SANTA
CRUZ (AP) -- Whoever emerges as governor
of California will have a tough time fulfilling
campaign promises. The state faces an $8
billion deficit, persistent unemployment,
struggling schools, and, as Gov. Gray Davis
knows all too well, angry and mobilized
voters.
''I
guess it's fun during the campaign, but
it's going to be a grind once they get in
there. It's a miserable job that everyone
wants,'' said Bob Stern, who heads the nonpartisan
Center for Governmental Studies in Santa
Monica.
The
state has been hit hard by the downturn
in the economy and the burst of the high-tech
bubble in particular. A total of 223,900
jobs were lost from 2001 to 2003, causing
a precipitous drop in personal income tax
and sales tax revenue -- the main sources
of income for the California's $71 billion
budget.
The
result has been cutbacks and higher fees
for such things as health care and education.
Teachers are being laid off, classrooms
are overflowing, and clinics for the poor
are being shuttered.
Any
budgetary solutions to these problems will
need two-thirds approval from a state legislature
that is more polarized than ever after the
wrenching recall campaign.
Moreover,
there is only so much room in the budget
for creative problem-solving, since a series
of voter-approved ''lockboxes'' mandate
how money must be spent in certain areas,
and the 1978 tax revolt known as Proposition
13 limits property tax increases to 2 percent
a year.
''The
overarching problem is structural, and that's
a really tough challenge that won't be fixed
by anyone who sits in the governor's office,''
said Jean Ross, executive director of the
California Budget Project in Sacramento.
''At some point we're going to have to reform
the way in which we craft budgets in this
state, and that's going to be painful.''
The
leading contenders for the job face their
own unique challenges as well.
Republican
Arnold Schwarzenegger, the front-runner
in the race to replace Davis, has seen his
image and his mandate to clean up Sacramento
tarnished by accusations that he groped
and sexually harassed 15 women.
Schwarzenegger
has apologized and denounced some of the
accusations as dirty politics, but he probably
will not escape the controversy if he is
elected governor.
Attorney
General Bill Lockyer, a Democrat, said Schwarzenegger
should volunteer for a state investigation
regardless of the outcome of the election,
although the one-year statute of limitations
for sexual battery has expired on all the
complaints.
And
Democratic Assemblyman Mark Leno said he
would introduce legislation he dubbed ''Arnold's
Law'' to increase the penalties for sexually
harassing women in the workplace.
''I
don't think these sex harassment allegations
are going away. He's going to keep being
flayed by them. Maybe they're like mosquito
pricks, but they're still there,'' said
Edward Lascher, a public policy professor
at Sacramento State University.
Schwarzenegger
has said his top priority is to roll back
a recent tripling of the vehicle registration
tax. That alone would increase the budget
deficit by $4 billion. His solution -- to
tax Indian casinos -- would involve re-negotiating
compacts with 61 tribes -- a difficult task
that will not be helped by Schwarzenegger's
campaign advertisements criticizing Indian
gambling. He also wants to renegotiate contracts
with the state employees' unions.
If
Schwarzenegger wins, he will also be confronted
with an overwhelming Democratic majority
in the Legislature and a considerable amount
of ill will toward him. In addition, he
will have only about two months to set up
his administration before a budget is due
in January.
If
Davis survives the recall, he can expect
minimal GOP cooperation and a continuation
of all the problems stemming from the budget
crisis that led to the recall campaign just
a year into his second term.
California's
economy has begun to show some signs of
recovery, including higher-than-expected
bond sales and a growing number of new businesses.
This year's turnaround in the stock market
has also boosted the value of stock options
for thousands of Silicon Valley workers.
Still,
when it comes to fixing the budget, ''all
of the easy things have already been done,''
said Democratic Assemblyman John Laird.
''I just don't think any of these candidates
understand how bad it is, and how hard it
will be to solve the problems.''
|
