lab2f96.html

Reading Assignment: Charles Prysby and Carmine Scavo, Voting Behavior: The 1996 Election (Washington, D.C.: American Political Science Association, 1997), pp. 22-27; and Douglas Hibbs, Jr., "President Reagan's Mandate from the 1980 Election," American Politics Quarterly , Vol. 10 (October 1982), pp. 387-420.

"Crosstabs", in Hans Zeisel, Say It With Figures (N.Y.: Harper & Row, 1968).

The factors which influence voting behavior include:

basic loyalty to or preference for a particular political party (Party Identification);
general assessments of the performance of government (retrospective voting);
orientations on specific issues of public policy (issue voting); and
evaluations of the personal qualities of the candidates (candidate orientation).

According to Ladd, party identification has declined in importance over the past 20 years. Hibbs reports on the importance of "retrospecitive voting", and both single issues as well as ideology seem to play a more important role in the selection of candidates today.

In this assignment you will use three independent variables from an election of your choice to assess the their relative importance on voting behavior. Use party identification; then select a measure of issue orientation or retrospective voting; and an independent variable to measure candidate orientation. Explain in your paper why you have choosen these three independent variables.

Examples of variables appropriate for measuring issue orientions are:

ideology,

Gender,

position on an issue (e.g., abortion, civil rights, etc.).

General evaluations of the performance of government may be measured by:

personal financial condition;
presidential job approval;

national economic condidtions.

Candidate orientations may be measured by:

the various feeling thermometers;
assessments of the candidate's knowledge;
assessments of the candidate's leadership; or

assessments of the candidates's morality, etc.

Compare the influence of party identification and the other independent variable you have selected on presidential vote (V2) in two presidential elections. You will generate six tables to present your data.

Does party identification or issue orientation, or candidate orientation appear to be more or less in voting for president? Has the relationship you observed in one election changed from the previous election? What does this tell you about changes in the American party system? Why?

Objectives: The objectives of this assignment are:

to use SPSS to generate a two-way crosstab;
to analyze a two-variable relationship;
to present data in tabular form;
to write about data; and
to answer the above questions.

Grade for the Assignment

Data(10 points): Presentation of data in a table;
Analysis (10 points): How well you describe the data and the relationship shown in the table.
Investment (10 points): How well you answer the questions asked above; how well you explain what you are doing; and the general sophistication of your research.

Sample Table

SOURCE: 1992 National Election Study, Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
Table 1 Effect of Change in Personal Financial Condition on Presidential Vote, 1992*
	Financial Condition
Presidential Vote	Better	Same	Worse
Bush	42.6%	38.1%	21.7%
Clinton	37.3	46.8	57.3
Perot	20.2	15.1	21.3
TOTAL	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
(N)	(518)	(589)	(575)

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