The bitterly divided Supreme Court decision effectively ending the race--with five conservative justices siding with Bush and four moderate-to-liberal justices with Al Gore--provided a symbolically fitting finish to a campaign that split the nation between the two parties as evenly as any election since the late 19th century. This razor-thin partisan divide looms like a chasm beneath the presidency Bush will now claim.
The nation is likely to greet the new president with a burst of goodwill and hopes of reconciliation. But the basic divisions in the country exposed through the election--and the long twilight struggle after Nov. 7--are almost certain to reassert themselves, particularly as Bush moves toward implementing the more ideological components of his campaign agenda.
"The election left us with what we've known for a long time: There is no majority in this country," says Stanford University political scientist Morris Fiorina. "There are two deeply divided blocs and there is a big center up for grabs, and neither party's figured out how to capture it yet."
At the same time, the Senate will be split evenly between the parties for the first time since 1881; the Republicans will be hanging on the health of two elderly GOP Southern senators, Jesse Helms of North Carolina and Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, serving in states where their replacements, if needed, would be appointed by Democratic governors. Meanwhile, in the House, Republicans will hold just three seats more than the 218 needed to pass legislation.
This narrow division by itself guarantees enormous headaches for the next president. The problem is even more complex because the parties are not only at parity but are polarized at the same time. Though Gore and Bush received almost exactly the same number of votes on election day, they mobilized virtually mirror-image voter coalitions that hold opposite views on most key issues.
As dramatically as any recent election, this campaign painted a portrait of two nations, divided more by values than income. Gore won three-fifths of urban voters, Bush three-fifths of rural voters, with the suburbs, where the two men split almost evenly, serving as the DMZ. Gore dominated the East and West coasts, Bush the heartland. With his victory in Florida, Bush won every Southern state; Gore carried 71% of the electoral votes outside the South.
All of these cultural and geographic divisions are evident--and even accentuated--in Congress. There, Republican control hinges entirely on their strength in the South, the country's most conservative region. In 1994, for the first time since the Civil War, Republicans held a majority of House seats from both the South and the non-South. But since then, the Democrats have overtaken the GOP outside the South in both chambers.
In the House, the GOP holds a 27-seat advantage in the 13 Southern states--but Democrats hold 18 more seats in states outside the South. Likewise, in the Senate, the Southern states provide Republicans an eight-seat advantage; Democrats lead by eight seats everywhere else.
Demographic measures fill in the picture of a country divided more along cultural than economic lines. Especially among whites, the share of the vote won by Bush and Gore varied remarkably little from the lower middle class to the most affluent.
By comparison, the genders split as sharply as in any recent election, with men preferring Bush by 11 percentage points and women preferring Gore by 12 points, according to a Los Angeles Times exit poll. Married voters preferred Bush by 8 points, while singles gave Gore a 23-point advantage. Though Bush gained some ground among Latinos, his hopes of inroads among blacks were dashed: He won less than 1 in 10 African American votes, while carrying a clear majority of whites.
Other measures of cultural affinities revealed similarly stark divisions. Three-fifths of Americans who own guns voted for Bush; three-fifths of Americans who don't own guns voted for Gore. The more frequently a voter attended church, the more likely he was to back Bush over Gore. Whites who never attend church preferred Gore over Bush by 26 points; Bush carried the majority of whites who attend church at least once a month or more, with his lead surging to an incredible 79% to 19% among those who attend church more than once a week, according to a Voter News Service exit poll.
This regional and ideological concentration magnifies Bush's challenge. On the one hand, he must hold a Southern and religiously devout base that is culturally conservative, opposed to abortion rights and gun control, and skeptical of new federal activism; on the other, he must reach out to much more moderate voters, particularly in the Northern and Midwestern suburbs that may represent his best hope of building a majority coalition, notes Emery Unversity political scientist Merle Black, an expert on Southern politics.
"They really do have to reach out or they are going to govern themselves right out of office," says Black. "There certainly isn't any evidence that people across the United States have the same view, in the same proportions, as the Southerners do. So while that's the base of the party, if Bush is to have any long-term success, he has to reach out to Democrats and independents across the country."
Yet conservatives--energized by the long postelection fight--are already warning Bush against giving Democrats too many concessions on policy or personnel appointments.
Finding common ground between Democrats and Republicans
in this environment could make even the task of sorting through a stack
of dimpled ballots look simple by comparison.