More recently, the expanding metropolis has engulfed
Annandale, which itself
has become a more eclectic community. The housing stock is now a goulash of
one-story ramblers, two-story town houses, lower-income apartment complexes
and a few million dollar chateaux. The residents, still highly mobile, are more
ethnically diverse than a generation ago and less Republican than politically
marginal.
But with all its changes, and even because of them,
Annandale remains highly
representative of suburban America. Because the suburbs, in becoming the
nation's dominant demographic identity and pivotal political venue, have been
transformed.
Annandale anchors the middle of Virginia's 11th
Congressional District, which
last fall voted Democratic for president and Republican for Congress. Far from
an anomaly, that ticket-splitting was duplicated in major suburban areas across
the country - and it is one reason that the two parties now share control of
Pennsylvania Avenue. The power of the suburbs to tip both the presidential and the congressional
balance underscores the shape of American politics in the late 20th century. For
generations, American elections were defined in terms of the city versus the
countryside, with the one gradually eclipsing the other.
But with the advent of the interstate highway and the
affordable mortgage, the
suburbs shouldered their way past the urban and the rural alike. Roughly half the
population of the United States now lives in the suburbs--and the percentage of
suburbanites is, even higher among registered voters.
Fourteen states have populations with suburban
majorities, according to the 1990
Census, including six of the largest: California, Florida, Michigan, Florida, New
Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And even when a relatively high 60 percent
threshold is used to define a suburban district, there are more such districts in the
current Congress than there are urban and rural districts combined. The suburan advantage in congressional districts may well grow even larger in
the years ahead. Most prognosticators expect that the population will continue to
gravitate from the countryside to the metropolis - and that people inside cities
will continue their exodus to the suburbs.
As a result, the suburbs will continue to be where national elections are won and
lost--as in 1996, when the suburbs decisively chose a Democratic president and a
closely divided but Republican House.
Thirteen of the 14 suburban-majority states voted for Clinton, yet Republicans
won a majority of congressional seats in seven of these states and tied for control
in another.
Before the South became a Republican stronghold, the suburbs were the GOP's
bastion. For years, suburban populations reflected basic Republican
characteristics-- they were relatively affluent, well-educated, overwhelmingly
white and often antipathetic to the neighboring urban center that was generally
dominated by racial minorities and Democratic.
For a generation after World War 11, the burgeoning suburbs were a cornerstone
for the GOP presidential victories of Dwight D. Eisenhower to George Bush.
During these years, the suburbs were also a major source of the party's strength
in Congress. Today, while Republicans remain the party of the suburbs in Congress, they
have lost that distinction at the presidential level. Bill Clinton established a
beachhead in the suburbs in 1992, and then widened it in winning re-election in
1996. He rode the Democratic trend that has come with demographic changes,
but he also exploited his relative youthfulness and the issues of interest to the
generation that elected the nation's first Baby Boom president.
Of the nation's 28 largest suburban counties (those with a 1990 population of
more than 500,000), Clinton carried 24 in 1996 - a level of suburban hegemony
approaching that of Republicans Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon and Ronald
Reagan in their heyday.
Before Clinton, 17 of these suburban behemoths had not voted for a Democratic
presidential candidate since the 1960s. Seven of them were counties that Clinton
did not win in 1992.
Many of the counties he brought into the Democratic column in 1996 are
synonymous with affluence, such as Fairfield County, Conn. (with upscale
Greenwich and Darien); Oakland County, Mich.; and Lake County, Ill., which
includes many of the well heeled, lakefront communities north of Chicago.
But Clinton did not make inroads on the wealthy alone. In 1996 he was also the
first Democratic standard bearer since Hubert H. Humphrey in 1968 to carry the
blue-collar suburbs of Macomb County, Mich., and the first Democrat since
Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win New Jersey's Bergen County, which extends
from older, inner suburbs across the Hudson River from New York City to stylish
enclaves such as Saddle River in the hills to the west.
Just as visibly, the minority population is steadily increasing in that
quintessential hotbed of Sun Belt Republicanism, Orange County, Calif. In one
recent year, the most common surname among residents buying houses in the
county was Nguyen.
The suburbs are also diversifying economically and socially. Their traditional
role as bedroom communities is giving way as businesses and jobs move to what
author Joel Garreau has described as "Edge Cities." workers no longer commute
to a central city, but to workplaces sprouting up near the intersections of major
interstate highways.
That is the case in Fairfax County, which, according to its congressman,
Republican Thomas M. Davis III, boasts more office space than all but five
urban jurisdictions: New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta and Washington,
D.C.
Davis says the sprawling mall-office complex of Tysons Corner alone would
make the list of the top 20 office centers nationally. "Information technology and
telecommunications drive this business," says Davis. And the suburbs provide a
well-educated work force to serve it.
Fiscal conservatism still resonates. But in the 1990s, cultural issues have also
become important as the Republican Party has veered right to embrace social
conservatism. While this move has won the GOP new adherents in some parts of
the country, it has not been a net plus in the suburbs. The party has lost
once-secure votes among educated working women, in particular, over its
hard-line stance on such issues as abortion. "This is not Christian Coalition
country," says Davis of his slice of suburbia.
At the same time, high-voltage topics such as crime have taken a different form.
The law-and-order sentiment that ran rampant after the social unrest of the 1960s
has been replaced in many affluent suburbs by a fear of guns. "The gun issue in
suburban areas is far more potent an issue than abortion," says Paul M. Green, an
Illinois political analyst at Governors State University.
Suburban candidates who once tried to outdo each other in support of lower
taxes and law and order now must be sure they also come across as social
moderates. Many Republican congressional candidates have been careful to
fashion such an image and thrive among their suburban constituencies.
But the party's presidential standard bearers in the 1990s, Bush and Bob Dole,
were less successful in this regard. Both took a tumble in the suburbs, where their
age was viewed negatively by many younger voters. Bush was nearing 70 and
Dole was over 70 at. the time each ran against Clinton creating the widest age
gaps between the two major party nominees since the 1850s.
"You can never underestimate the generational appeal that Bill Clinton had
versus Bob Dole," says Davis. Clinton "was a Baby Boomer, and the suburbs are
chock-full of Baby Boomers."
Democratic Rep. James P. Moran, whose Northern Virginia district lies directly
across the Potomac River from the capital, gives Clinton's record more credit for
his victory in the suburbs in 1996. "Until Clinton, Ike was the top suburban
president," says Moran. "I think Clinton is comparable in delivery for suburban
voters."
To Moran, Eisenhower was the architect of the interstate highway system,
expanded middle-class housing and promoted ideological balance in the political
system, all of interest to suburban voters.
Under Clinton, says Moran, the suburban, high-tech economy has boomed with
advances in global trade. There has been a focus on suburban quality of life, from
family medical leave to education tax credits. And there have been no foreign
wars. "If you don't draft anybody," says Moran, "you don't interfere with
middle-class ambitions for their kids."
Yet Clinton's success does not mean that his party is about to gain the upper
hand in the suburbs. Many suburbs that voted for Clinton in 1996 voted
decisively for Republican gubernatorial, Senate and House candidates in 1994.
"If the economy goes south on the Democrats, I think a lot of their suburban
gains start to disappear," says Davis. "I think that the suburbs have always been
subject to swings."
There is no doubt these days that the suburbs are the power
center in American politics. A 1993 analysis by David C.
Huckabee of the Congressional Research Service found that
212 congressional districts--nearly half--have populations with a suburban
majority and that 160 have populations at least 60 percent suburban. By either
measurement, the number of suburban districts dwarfs the total for either the
cities or rural areas, which have each lost ground to the suburbs over the last two
decades. (Redistricting since 1993 has changed the lines in several states,
although the number of suburban districts has stayed roughly the same.)
Half the districts in California are at least 60 percent suburban. So are half in
Michigan and nearly half in New York, as are more than 60 percent of the
districts in Florida and Pennsylvania and all but one of the 13 districts in New
Jersey.
The rise of the suburbs is reflected in the House leadership. GOP leaders come
from the fast-growing suburbs of the Sun Belt, which the party dominates. House
Speaker Newt Gingrich represents a district in the Atlanta suburbs. Majority
Leader Dick Armey's constituency is anchored in the suburbs of Dallas; Majority
Whip Tom DeLay's includes suburbs of Houston.
Meanwhile, Democratic leaders come from the suburbs of the Frost Belt, where
the party has been able to hold its own in congressional voting. Minority Leader
Richard A. Gephardt represents a district that lies predominantly in the St. Louis
suburbs. Minority Whip David E. Bonior's constituency is centered in suburban
Macomb County, outside Detroit, and Democratic Caucus Chairman Vic Fazio
represents a California district that stretches north and west from the suburbs of
Sacramento.
Debunked as havens of conformity, the suburbs now are anything but a
monolith. In devising a neighborhood classification system, the Claritas Corp., a
marketing firm, came up with at least 10 categories of suburban neighborhoods,
from hotsy-totsy "Blue Blood Estates" to the primarily Southern, primiarily
working-class suburbs of "Norma Rae-ville." Among the suburban classifications
in between were the aging tract subdivisions of "Levittown, U.S.A.," and the
exurban boom towns of the "New Homesteaders."
Some types of suburbia are evident within a short drive of the nation's capital.
Immediately to the east of the city is the majority-black Maryland 4th District,
the destination of much of the black exodus from the nation's capital. To the
north is the Maryland 8th, the most affluent district in the country as measured by
median family income. To the west, spread out like layers of socio-political
archeology, are the three suburban districts of Northern Virginia. Taken together,
the three offer a microcosm of suburban terrain throughout the country.
Closest to Washington are the inner suburbs of the Virginia 8th District. These
are older, more ethnic, and more citified than the suburban jurisdictions to the
west. The 8th is friendly turf for the Democrats, giving Clinton 55 percent of the
vote in 1996 and easily re-electing Moran.
Immediately to the west is the Virginia 11th, a new district that was rewarded to
the Old Dominion for its population growth in the 1980s. The district straddles
the Washington Beltway and contains portions of both the inner and outer
suburbs. The 11th is classic ticket-splitting country. In 1992, it voted Republican
for president and Democratic for Congress. In 1996, it went Democratic for
president and Republican for Congress (giving Davis a second term). Farthest out
from Washington is the Virginia 10th, which extends from the outer suburbs into the mountains
and valleys beyond. The outer suburbs are newer, more conservative and more homogeneously
white than the suburbs closer to the city, making the 10th a Republican enclave. It gave Dole 54
percent of the vote in 1996 and overwhelmingly re-elected veteran Republican Rep. Frank R.
Wolf.
Each district has its distinctive features. Moran describes the
8th as "half urban and half suburban." Its linchpins,
Arlington and Alexandria, lie across the Potomac River from
Washington and have the population densities of urban centers. "People who
choose to live in a more urban setting accept a level of socio-interdependency and
are more tolerant on social issues," says Moran. People who move further out, he
says, are often trying to "get away from [the perception] of crowding and crime."
Davis describes his district in the midst of the Northern Virginia suburbs as "east
meets west.... Moran has more singles and seniors," says Davis. "I have more
families." Wolf, he adds, "has nothing but Republicans."
The 11th District is pure suburban, with no urban or rural parts. But that does
not mean blandness. Davis says his constituency is what Chicago used to be, "a
series of small neighborhoods, each with their own little culture."
Davis figures there are about 130 different neighborhoods in his district, from
the planned, upscale community of Reston to multiethnic Annandale. Wolf's district immediately to the west has a land area nearly nine times as large
as the 8th and 11th districts combined, and on a visit to his office one is greeted
with brochures on caverns and Civil War battlefields that dot the bucolic portion
of his district.
But most of the population in the 10th is packed into the fast-growing outer
suburbs of Loudoun, western Fairfax and western Prince William counties.
Although the commuting distances are longer for Wolf's constituents, the lower
housing prices have attracted younger families to the outer suburbs. And they
tend to vote Republican. "People are never more conservative politically than
when they are a young family with kids," says Davis. "They tend to be protective
of their kids and worried about their future."
Incomes can vary widely within a district, but suburban constituencies are
generally affluent. Among the 30 wealthiest districts in the country, 23 are
suburban--including nine of the top 10.
But affluence is no longer synonymous with straight-ticket Republicanism. The
two richest districts in the Washington, D.C., area are also the two most apt to
split their tickets. Both Constance A. Morella's Maryland 8th and Davis' Virginia
11th voted to re-elect Clinton and their Republican House member in 1996.
In general, inner suburban districts, such as Moran's, that combine
characteristics of suburbs and cities lean Democratic in their voting. Outer
suburban districts, such as Wolf's, that combine suburbs with rural, small town
America lean Republican.
Yet many suburban voters share some interests whether they live near or far
from the city. Throughout Northern Virginia, issues that involve transportation,
federal employees, and urban-suburban relations are of mutual concern. And that
is where the three congressmen focus much of their attention on Capitol Hill.
Wolf is chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation.
Davis is a member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee as
well as the chairman of the Government Reform and Oversight Subcommittee on
the District of Columbia. Moran is the ranking member on the House
Appropriations D.C. subcommittee.
Davis is an avid student of suburban politics, much of which comes from simply
observing neighborhoods and their different housing patterns. "You can drive
through and get a feel of what a neighborhood is like," he says. "It's not just
income in the suburbs. A lot of politics is cultural politics."
Neighborhoods with contemporary housing, says Davis, tend to attract people
who are "a little more culturally liberal.... The more conventional the home, the
more Republican." And then there is the "flat roof" theory: "The flatter the roof,
the more Democratic" the voter. It is a theory that he thinks is still applicable.
Generally, Davis sees the Beltway as an informal political divide. Voters who
live inside the Beltway often are more urban in their orientation, while those who
live outside tend to be more hostile to Washington. Still, campaigns in the
suburbs basically come down to each candidate selling himself. "People that are
educated are not knee-jerk about voting for party," says Davis. "They tend to pick
and choose candidates."
Many suburban congressmen display such independence. There is no suburban
caucus. And, says Wolf, there is no need for one. "I'm not a big caucus person,"
he says. "They tend to Balkanize Congress."
In part, a caucus would be hard to organize when the definition of a suburban
district is so broad. Some definitions include the districts of Democratic Reps.
Gephardt and William L. Clay of Missouri, whose districts are anchored in the
city of St. Louis, but are primarily suburban in population. "Some suburban
members don't think of themselves as suburban," says Davis.
Meanwhile, as co-chairman of the New Democrat Coalition, Moran is trying to
organize suburban congressmen on the Democratic side in an effort both to
heighten the influence of the suburbs within the Democratic caucus and better
position the party to win congressional seats.
It is an effort worth making, he figures. Urban Democrats may have more
seniority and clout in Congress, says Moran, but "the open seats to capture
control ... have to be in the suburbs," Moran says. "That is where political
power is."
Shifting Politics
It would have been difficult for a scholar of suburban
voting behavior to imagine such a split in
the 1950s, or even in the 1970s.
Diversity Rises
Inner suburbs, in general, are no longer almost wholly
white, a change that has worked to the
advantage of Clinton and other Democrats. Prince George's County, immediately to the east of
Washington, D.C., is majority black. Fairfax County, the linchpin of the Northern Virginia
suburbs, is roughly one-quarter minority (closely divided between Asians, Hispanics and blacks).
New Issues
As the economy and demographics of the suburbs have
changed, so have the concerns of
suburban voters. "The issue agenda is now a more complex one," says Lee M. Miringoff, the
director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in New York.
New Power Centers
Inner vs. Outer
Humorist Erma Bombeck once wrote, "Suburbs are small, controlled
communities where for the most part everyone has the same living standards, the
same weeds, the same number of garbage cans, the same house plans, and the
same level in the septic tanks."
Half and Half
Money a Factor
All three suburban Northern Virginia districts are among the most affluent in the nation.
According to data from the 1990 Census, Davis' district ranks sixth in median family income;
Moran's district ranks 11th; Wolf's district ranks 36th.