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16th Annual Regional Economic Forecast to be Offered May 13

Published: May 3, 2010

What is the likely timeline for economic recovery for the Southern California region? Will unemployment figures turn around in the region and, if so, at what kind of pace? How will the housing market in the region improve over the next year and which parts of the region will lead in that recovery?

These are just some of the questions that will be discussed at CSULB’s 16th annual Regional Economic Forecast Conference on Thursday, May 13, beginning at 7:30 a.m. at the Hyatt Regency Long Beach.

Focusing on the region that includes Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside/San Bernardino and Ventura counties, the 2010-11 Regional Economic Forecast will estimate employment growth rates for the region as a whole as well as growth rates for each county. Business and civic leaders from throughout the greater Long Beach area will be on hand for the two-and-a-half- hour event, which is presented by the campus’ Office of Economic Research.

The annual forecast is under the direction of Joe Magaddino, chair of the CSULB Economics Department, and Lisa Grobar, professor of economics and director of the Economic Forecast Project.

“At this year’s forecast, we will be talking about the initial signs of an economic recovery that we are seeing in the region’s economy,” Grobar noted. “We will present our outlook for the timetable of that recovery and we will talk about the sectors and areas within the region where we expect to see the earliest improvements. We’ll also take a look at regional housing markets and will present our forecast for regional home prices.”

The annual forecast is compiled through the use of comprehensive sets of data on trade, housing, employment and income. The regional effect of multiple national variables such as interest rates, the federal budget and international trade is also factored in.

“At a national level, the recession is over, and that’s great news, but there are a lot of real challenges ahead. We’re in the process of recovering and working out of the big hole that we dug ourselves into,” Magaddino pointed out. “The biggest problem we face is going to be the unemployment rate. It is going to take some time to regain the number of jobs that have been lost, both nationally and regionally. Additionally, we need to keep our eyes on the Fed. If the Fed isn’t timely in the moves it needs to make, we face a real serious prospect of inflation.”

The cost for individuals to attend the conference is $125, which includes a buffet breakfast and hand-out materials. For more information about the 2010-11 Regional Economic Forecast, call the CSULB Office of Economic Research at 562/985-5061 or e-mail oer@csulb.edu.

–Rick Gloady