Data in this section reflect responses from 146 organizations that had responded to The National Association of Colleges and Employers Job Outlook Fall Preview Survey in August 2008. At that time, respondents overall reported plans to hire 6 percent more new college graduates from the Class of 2009 than they had actually hired from the Class of 2008. The current poll, conducted October 6 through October 17, 2008, updates those hiring projections.
Current projected hiring for the Class of 2009 shows very little growth over the hiring levels for the Class of 2008, but no expected decline.
This projection is based on a recent poll of Job Outlook participants who were asked to re-evaluate the hiring projections they provided in August in light of recent developments that suggest the general economy may be facing a significant downturn.
As Figure 1 details, employers who participated in both the August and October polls (N = 146) are expecting to decrease their original hiring levels by 1.6 percent. Nevertheless, when compared with the number of actual hires from these firms for the Class of 2008, the expectations for the Class of 2009 are still 1.3 percent ahead of last year's actuals.
| Figure 1: Hiring projection trends | |||
| Mean | Median | Total | |
| 08-09 Projected Hires (October poll) |
141 | 30 | 19,797 |
| 08-09 Projected Hires (August poll) |
143 | 35 | 20,117 |
| 07-08 Actual Hires | 139 | 30 | 19,542 |
In the August poll, approximately one-third of respondents said they were re-assessing their projection of college hires downward. Now, among respondents to the current poll, 52 percent of respondents currently project that they will be hiring fewer graduates during the 2009 recruiting season than they hired from the Class of 2008; 34 percent still anticipate hiring more graduates, and 14 percent expect to hire the same as they hired in 2008. (See Figure 2.)
| Figure 2: Change in college hiring expectations 2008 vs. 2009, by reporting firms |
|||
| Number of Respondents |
Percent of Respondents |
||
| Change 08-09 | Decrease | 73 | 52.1% |
| No Change | 19 | 13.6% | |
| Increase | 48 | 34.3% | |
| Total | 140 | 100.0% | |
The decreased expectation for college hiring that occurred between August and October was broadly felt across industries. Only government as a sector saw a significant increase in hiring expectations, while manufacturing and professional services remain essentially flat during the period of economic turmoil. All other industry categories decreased their hiring expectations for the Class of 2009. (See Figure 3.)
| Figure 3: Percent change in hiring expectations, August to October, by industry | |
| Industry | Percent Change |
| Agriculture | -14.2% |
| Construction | -19.6% |
| Manufacturing | 0.3% |
| Distribution & Utilities | -17.6% |
| Trade | -7.4% |
| Finance & Insurance | -6.2% |
| Business Services | -3.1% |
| Professional Services | 1.7% |
| Government | 19.8% |
